Reasoning About Uncertainty Second Edition

Author : Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262533804
Total Pages : 505 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition written by Joseph Y. Halpern and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Author : Ronald Fagin
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262562003
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Reasoning About Knowledge written by Ronald Fagin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reasoning about knowledge—particularly the knowledge of agents who reason about the world and each other's knowledge—was once the exclusive province of philosophers and puzzle solvers. More recently, this type of reasoning has been shown to play a key role in a surprising number of contexts, from understanding conversations to the analysis of distributed computer algorithms. Reasoning About Knowledge is the first book to provide a general discussion of approaches to reasoning about knowledge and its applications to distributed systems, artificial intelligence, and game theory. It brings eight years of work by the authors into a cohesive framework for understanding and analyzing reasoning about knowledge that is intuitive, mathematically well founded, useful in practice, and widely applicable. The book is almost completely self-contained and should be accessible to readers in a variety of disciplines, including computer science, artificial intelligence, linguistics, philosophy, cognitive science, and game theory. Each chapter includes exercises and bibliographic notes.

Author : Audun Jøsang
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319423371
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Subjective Logic written by Audun Jøsang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-27 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive treatment of subjective logic and all its operations. The author developed the approach, and in this book he first explains subjective opinions, opinion representation, and decision-making under vagueness and uncertainty, and he then offers a full definition of subjective logic, harmonising the key notations and formalisms, concluding with chapters on trust networks and subjective Bayesian networks, which when combined form general subjective networks. The author shows how real-world situations can be realistically modelled with regard to how situations are perceived, with conclusions that more correctly reflect the ignorance and uncertainties that result from partially uncertain input arguments. The book will help researchers and practitioners to advance, improve and apply subjective logic to build powerful artificial reasoning models and tools for solving real-world problems. A good grounding in discrete mathematics is a prerequisite.

Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080514898
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems written by Judea Pearl and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Author : Katie Steele
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108608043
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Beyond Uncertainty written by Katie Steele and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351683357
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.57/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure! —Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied

Author : Beishui Liao
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 981137791X
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Dynamics, Uncertainty and Reasoning written by Beishui Liao and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-23 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects selected papers presented at the Second Chinese Conference on Logic and Argumentation in 2018 held in Hangzhou, China. The papers presented reflect recent advances in logic and argumentation, as well as the connections between the two, and also include invited papers contributed by leading experts in these fields. The book covers a wide variety of topics related to dynamics, uncertainty and reasoning. It continues discussions on the interplay between logic and argumentation which has a long history from Aristotle’s ancient logic to very recent formal argumentation in AI.

Author : David Barber
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521518148
Total Pages : 739 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning written by David Barber and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-02-02 with total page 739 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.

Author : William Briggs
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319397567
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.66/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Author : Khosrow-Pour, Mehdi
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1605660272
Total Pages : 5266 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Second Edition written by Khosrow-Pour, Mehdi and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2008-10-31 with total page 5266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This set of books represents a detailed compendium of authoritative, research-based entries that define the contemporary state of knowledge on technology"--Provided by publisher.