Reckoning With Risk

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0140297863
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Reckoning with Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2003-04-24 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143127101
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

Author : Diane Vaughan
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226826570
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Dead Reckoning written by Diane Vaughan and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023-02-13 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vaughan unveils the complicated and high-pressure world of air traffic controllers as they navigate technology and political and public climates, and shows how they keep the skies so safe. When two airplanes were flown into the World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Americans watched in uncomprehending shock as first responders struggled to react to the situation on the ground. Congruently, another remarkable and heroic feat was taking place in the air: more than six hundred and fifty air traffic control facilities across the country coordinated their efforts to ground four thousand flights in just two hours—an achievement all the more impressive considering the unprecedented nature of the task. In Dead Reckoning, Diane Vaughan explores the complex work of air traffic controllers, work that is built upon a close relationship between human organizational systems and technology and is remarkably safe given the high level of risk. Vaughan observed the distinct skill sets of air traffic controllers and the ways their workplaces changed to adapt to technological developments and public and political pressures. She chronicles the ways these forces affected their jobs, from their relationships with one another and the layouts of their workspace to their understanding of their job and its place in society. The result is a nuanced and engaging look at an essential role that demands great coordination, collaboration, and focus—a role that technology will likely never be able to replace. Even as the book conveys warnings about complex systems and the liabilities of technological and organizational innovation, it shows the kinds of problem-solving solutions that evolved over time and the importance of people.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1439127093
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-11-10 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Author : Anne Kreamer
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0812997719
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk/Reward written by Anne Kreamer and published by Random House. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A persuasive and eye-opening look at the importance of embracing risk in our working lives—and how to use it to achieve lifelong career success Some of us relish the chance to fly without a net, others . . . not so much. But no matter how adventurous we might be in our personal lives, most of us are wary of allowing risk into our careers. With an economy in constant flux and a job market in which uncertainty is the only constant, stepping outside one’s comfort zone can feel dangerous. But as the findings of this eye-opening and urgent book attest, the avoidance of risk might pose the greatest danger of all to our career prospects. In Risk/Reward, trend-spotter and career guru Anne Kreamer makes the compelling case that embracing risk is essential to managing a twenty-first-century career. Risk-taking isn’t just for entrepreneurs, nor does it require working on a figurative tightrope. Rather, Kreamer says, conscious, consistent, and modest risk-taking can help us become more able to recognize opportunity when it appears, and more likely to seize the chance to make the right change at the right moment. Risk/Reward presents a framework for making the most of today’s ever-evolving workplace and turning risk-taking into a daily practice. Using proprietary data from three national studies about the American worker, Kreamer explores the importance of career risk-taking through profiles of four Risk/Reward personality types: Pioneers, Thinkers, Defenders, and Drifters. She presents a Risk/Reward Matrix that anyone can use to identify his or her own innate risk threshold, and she identifies constructive ways to implement risk in everyday situations—from initiating an uncomfortable conversation with a boss to sharing out-of-the-box ideas with colleagues or constructively challenging long-held practices in an organization. Peppered throughout Risk/Reward are insights and hard-won wisdom from notable achievers such as bestselling author Anna Quindlen, journalist Jane Pauley, CNBC financial maven Jim Cramer, thought leader Po Bronson, and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Timely and insightful, Risk/Reward is a unique blend of practical and inspirational wisdom that even the most risk-averse person can harness on the path toward success and fulfillment. Praise for Anne Kreamer’s It’s Always Personal: Navigating Emotion in the New Workplace “A stimulating read bolstered by . . . some of the best recent work on emotional intelligence and the science of happiness.”—The Wall Street Journal “So what should be the rules and boundaries for showing how you feel while you work? That’s a question asked and answered in Anne Kreamer’s fascinating . . . look at an issue that rarely gets discussed.”—The Washington Post “Finally, someone is willing to unpack the morass of anger, anxiety, sadness, and joy that drives the workday. . . . [Kreamer] has hit the ‘It’s about time!’ button.”—Elle “[A] lively, well-researched exploration of emotions on the job.”—Oprah.com “Explores how to be true to your ‘emotional flashpoints—anger, fear, anxiety, empathy, happiness and crying’—without sabotaging your career.”—The New York Times Book Review

Author : Michael Moran
Publisher : St. Martin's Press
ISBN 13 : 1137000422
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power written by Michael Moran and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A leading forecaster of economic and political trends takes a sharp look at the decline of American influence in the world, and how it can prepare for the new reality. The age of American global dominance is ending. Today, a host of forces are converging to challenge its cherished notion of exceptionalism, and risky economic and foreign policies have steadily eroded the power structure in place since the Cold War. Staggering under a huge burden of debt, the country must make some tough choices—or cede sovereignty to its creditors. In The Reckoning, Michael Moran, geostrategy analyst explores the challenges ahead -- and what, if anything, can be prevent chaos as America loses its perch at the top of the mountain. Covering developments like unprecedented information technologies, the growing prosperity of China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, and the diminished importance of Wall Street in the face of global markets, Moran warns that the coming shift will have serious consequences not just for the United States, but for the wider world. Countries that have traditionally depended on the United States for protection and global stability will have to fend for themselves. Moran describes how, with a bit of wise leadership, America can transition to this new world order gracefully—by managing entitlements, reigniting sustainable growth, reforming immigration policy, launching new regional dialogues that bring friend and rival together in cooperative multinational structures, and breaking the poisonous deadlock in Washington. If not, he warns, history won't wait.

Author : Charlaine Harris
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101514388
Total Pages : 231 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Dead Reckoning written by Charlaine Harris and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-03 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Caught up in the politics of the vampire world, psychic Sookie Stackhouse learns that she is as much of a pawn as any ordinary human in this novel in the #1 New York Times bestselling series—the inspiration for the HBO® original series True Blood. With her knack for being in trouble’s way, Sookie witnesses the firebombing of Merlotte’s, the bar where she works. Since Sam Merlotte is now known to be two-natured, suspicion falls immediately on the anti-shifters in the area. Sookie suspects otherwise, but her attention is divided when she realizes that her lover, Eric Northman, and his “child” Pam are plotting to kill the vampire who is now their master. Gradually, Sookie is drawn into the plot—which is much more complicated than she knows...

Author : Clint Smith
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 0316492914
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.11/5 ( download)

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Download or read book How the Word Is Passed written by Clint Smith and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-06-01 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This “important and timely” (Drew Faust, Harvard Magazine) #1 New York Times bestseller examines the legacy of slavery in America—and how both history and memory continue to shape our everyday lives. Beginning in his hometown of New Orleans, Clint Smith leads the reader on an unforgettable tour of monuments and landmarks—those that are honest about the past and those that are not—that offer an intergenerational story of how slavery has been central in shaping our nation's collective history, and ourselves. It is the story of the Monticello Plantation in Virginia, the estate where Thomas Jefferson wrote letters espousing the urgent need for liberty while enslaving more than four hundred people. It is the story of the Whitney Plantation, one of the only former plantations devoted to preserving the experience of the enslaved people whose lives and work sustained it. It is the story of Angola, a former plantation-turned-maximum-security prison in Louisiana that is filled with Black men who work across the 18,000-acre land for virtually no pay. And it is the story of Blandford Cemetery, the final resting place of tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers. A deeply researched and transporting exploration of the legacy of slavery and its imprint on centuries of American history, How the Word Is Passed illustrates how some of our country's most essential stories are hidden in plain view—whether in places we might drive by on our way to work, holidays such as Juneteenth, or entire neighborhoods like downtown Manhattan, where the brutal history of the trade in enslaved men, women, and children has been deeply imprinted. Informed by scholarship and brought to life by the story of people living today, Smith's debut work of nonfiction is a landmark of reflection and insight that offers a new understanding of the hopeful role that memory and history can play in making sense of our country and how it has come to be. Winner of the National Book Critics Circle Award for Nonfiction Winner of the Stowe Prize Winner of 2022 Hillman Prize for Book Journalism A New York Times 10 Best Books of 2021

Author : Roddy Boyd
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470889802
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.00/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Fatal Risk written by Roddy Boyd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-05 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long-listed for the FT & Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2011 The true story of how risk destroys, as told through the ongoing saga of AIG From the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the subject of the financial crisis has been well covered. However, the story central to the crisis-that of AIG-has until now remained largely untold. Fatal Risk: A Cautionary Tale of AIG's Corporate Suicide tells the inside story of what really went on inside AIG that caused it to choke on risk and nearly brining down the entire economic system. The book Reveals inside information available nowhere else, including the personal notes and records of key players such as the former Chairman of AIG, Hank Greenberg Takes readers behind the scenes at the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Details how an understanding of risk built AIG, but a disdain for government regulators led to a run-in with New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer Fatal Risk is the comprehensive and compelling true story of the company at the center of the financial storm and how it nearly caused the entire economic system to collapse.

Author : Michael Lawson
Publisher : Grove Press
ISBN 13 : 0802122531
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

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Download or read book House Reckoning written by Michael Lawson and published by Grove Press. This book was released on 2014 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twenty years after DeMarco's father was murdered, a former mob associate, on his deathbed succumbing to cancer, wants to make a confession about the killer in the continuation of the series following House Blood.