Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190286768
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-10-12 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0195388437
Total Pages : 662 pages
Book Rating : 4.35/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Simple Heuristics in a Social World written by Ralph Hertwig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 662 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780195153729
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Adaptive Thinking written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2002-03-07 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social.Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

Author : James Shanteau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461550890
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Science and Technology written by James Shanteau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199890129
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rationality for Mortals written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781602567894
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fast and frugal heuristics - simple rules for making decisions with realistic mental resources - are presented here. Developing computational models of heuristics shows how fast and frugal heuristics can yield adaptive decisions.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0141015918
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.10/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Gut Feelings written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2008-08-09 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Think less � and know more. A sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. A group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. A man falls for the right woman even though she�s �wrong� on paper. All these people succeeded by trusting their instincts � but how does it work? In Gut Feelings psychologist and behavioural expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. He explains that, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain�s �short cut�, or heuristic. By explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions � whether it�s in personnel selection or heart surgery � Gigerenzer will show you why gut thinking can change your world.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143127101
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

Author : Peter M. Todd
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019971794X
Total Pages : 608 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Ecological Rationality written by Peter M. Todd and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262046954
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book How to Stay Smart in a Smart World written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-08-02 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to stay in charge in a world populated by algorithms that beat us in chess, find us romantic partners, and tell us to “turn right in 500 yards.” Doomsday prophets of technology predict that robots will take over the world, leaving humans behind in the dust. Tech industry boosters think replacing people with software might make the world a better place—while tech industry critics warn darkly about surveillance capitalism. Despite their differing views of the future, they all agree: machines will soon do everything better than humans. In How to Stay Smart in a Smart World, Gerd Gigerenzer shows why that’s not true, and tells us how we can stay in charge in a world populated by algorithms. Machines powered by artificial intelligence are good at some things (playing chess), but not others (life-and-death decisions, or anything involving uncertainty). Gigerenzer explains why algorithms often fail at finding us romantic partners (love is not chess), why self-driving cars fall prey to the Russian Tank Fallacy, and how judges and police rely increasingly on nontransparent “black box” algorithms to predict whether a criminal defendant will reoffend or show up in court. He invokes Black Mirror, considers the privacy paradox (people want privacy, but give their data away), and explains that social media get us hooked by programming intermittent reinforcement in the form of the “like” button. We shouldn’t trust smart technology unconditionally, Gigerenzer tells us, but we shouldn’t fear it unthinkingly, either.